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Dissertation: Relationships between Stock Returns and Interest Rates in South-East Asia (Part 5 of 5)

Chapter 5: CONCLUSION

5.1 Summary of the Research Findings

From a review of the descriptive statistics of the research variables studied in this dissertation, it is found that the mean of the stock returns are generally positive. Then, the mean for changes of interest rates in Indonesia and Thailand is negative; while it is positive in other countries. Overall, none of the historical distribution of stock returns in the South East Asia countries being studied exhibit normal distribution. Then, it is also found that the standard deviation of stock returns is largest for Indonesia, followed by Thailand, Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia. This suggests that the stock prices volatility is greatest in Indonesia, followed by in Thailand, Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia. Specifically, the volatility of stock returns in Indonesia extremely high – i.e., the highest in among the South East Asia country. The distribution of stock returns in Indonesia exhibit fat tail characteristics suggesting that very positive or very negative abnormal returns could be very frequent in Indonesia. The extremely volatile stock returns in Indonesia strongly suggest that this is the characteristics of stock market in an emerging country. The volatility of stock returns is also high in both Philippines and Thailand, and investors may need to have the courage to stomach the bumpy ride along the changes in stock returns in investing in the stock market. Then, the volatility of stock returns In Singapore is moderate, when compared to the other emerging countries from South East Asia. As a developed nations, the stock returns in Singapore, is indeed less volatile. However, the volatility of stock returns in Malaysia is the smallest. This is consistent with common understandings on the Malaysian financial market. Among the South East Asia countries, Malaysia is often perceived as the defensive market.

From the scatter plot, it is found that changes in interest rates are positively related to stock returns in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. As discussed before, this is surprising. Theoretically speaking, as interest rates increase, stock returns should decrease, as investors would be able to allocate more of their money to bonds for better yield. However, there are also reasons for findings positive relationships between interest rates and stock returns. In a booming economy, the government tends to increase interest rates gradually. At the similar time, the stock returns tend to be positive due to the booming in economy. As such, over the long term, when annual data for both interest rates and stock returns are used, investors may observe positive relationships between the two variables. Anyway, such finding is useful – particularly in a situation when interest rates had increased, but the stock returns decreases (due to market perceptions that rising interest rates may hurt the stock returns in the future), investors can then bet that the stock returns will experience reversion to means as long as the economy is booming, since from historical perspectives, there is simply no evidences that stock returns are negatively or inversely related to changes in interest rates. Nonetheless, it is also found that the changes in interest rates are inversely related to stock returns in Singapore. Such a negative relationships between interest rates and stock returns are consistent with theory. However, the negative relationships should be treated with skepticism as the R-square of the regression is small.

Apart from that, the findings related to correlation coefficients between the research variables are as follow. It is found that correlation coefficients between changes of interest rates to stock returns in the respective countries are not statistically significant. There are no evidences supporting the notion that changes in interest rates are related to stock returns. Furthermore, the sign of the correlation coefficient between changes of interest rates to stock returns in the respective countries are not consistent. For this, the correlation coefficients between changes of interest rates to stock returns in the respective countries, namely, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines are positive. From all of the South East Asia countries being studied, only the correlation coefficient between changes of interest rates to stock returns in Singapore is negative. Instead of uncovering statistically relationships between changes of interest rates to stock returns in the different countries, it is found that the stock returns of the different countries are indeed statistically significantly and positively related to each others. The stock returns of these countries tend to move in tandem. There are strong evidences that systematic forces are indeed affecting all of the stock returns in South East Asia simultaneously. Similarly and surprisingly, the changes of interest rates seem to move in tandem among the countries being studied. There are statistically significant empirical evidences showing that the central banks of the countries implement similar monetary policies, from the observation that interest rates tend to change in tandem with each other in these countries.

5.2 Review of the Research Objectives

As outlined in Chapter 1 earlier, there are three distinctive research objectives in the study conducted in this dissertation. In this section, the research objectives will be discussed, in light of the literature review and research findings discussed before in earlier sections.

Regarding the first research objective, which is to review and investigate the existing literatures regarding the relationships between interest rates to stock returns, it is found that it seems that there are evidences that changes in interest rates are related to the stock market returns in various different countries. Practitioners and academicians apparently acknowledge such idea, or at least found that to be economically reasonable. There are also evidences of Granger causality between these two variables. However, the findings between stock returns and changes in interest rates are not conclusive. In certain countries, there are no evidences supporting the notion that statistically significant relationships exists between changes in interest rates to stock returns.

Next, the second research objective is to review and investigate the empirical evidences related to stock returns and other predicting variables in the context of South-East Asia. For this, several literatures are presented. To summarize, Valadkhani, Chancharat & Havie (2009) found that stock market returns in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia tend to influenced stock market returns in Thailand. Pattarathammas & Khanthavit (2009) found that all the three following factors: world factors, regional factors, and idiosyncratic factors have different impacts towards stock returns in Singapore. Wasiuzzaman and Li (2009) found that the stock returns of the four countries as follow: Malaysia, Singapore, Japan and United States have financial market linkages and co-movements. Naughton and Veeraraghavan (2005) found that the two key Fama and French factors employed in the multifactor model, namely, the size and book to market equity factor has different level of significance across Singapore and Indonesia. Majid (2010) found not statistically significant relationships between real stock returns to inflationary trends in Malaysia. Majid & Yusof (2009) found that as interest rates increase, no matter domestically or internationally, the Muslim investors tend to purchase more of Shari’ah compliant stocks, thereby enhancing the Islamic stock returns in Malaysia. Pisedtasalasai & Gunasekarage (2007) found that there was strong evidence of asymmetry on the stock returns relationships to trading volume in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

Lastly, the third research objective is about investigating if there are statistical significant correlation between interest rates and stock market returns in the stock market of countries in South East Asia, namely: Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Brunei Darussalam. It is found that correlation coefficients between changes of interest rates to stock returns in the respective countries are not statistically significant, i.e., no evidences supporting the hypotheses that changes in interest rates are statistically related to stock returns. Worse, the sign of the correlation coefficient between changes of interest rates to stock returns in the respective countries are not consistent. Nevertheless, it is discovered that stock returns of the different countries are indeed statistically significantly and positively related to each others. Then, it is also discovered that the changes of interest rates seem to move in tandem among the countries being studied.

5.3 Suggestions of Research Areas in the Future

There are many possible areas for research in the future that may yield fruitful results related to the context of understanding the factors driving stock returns in various countries in South East Asia. In this dissertation, only changes in interest rates are used. However, there are many other economic variables that can be employed to further understand the driving forces behind the stock returns. For example, other possible economic indicator that can be used include: money supply, inflation rate, consumer confidence, business confidence, unemployment rate, oil prices, exchange rates as well as the changes of stock returns in other developed nations such as in United States. From this study, it is found that the stock returns in the South East Asia country tend to move in tandem. There are systematic factors contributing such observations or phenomenon. Thus, it is possible to study the historical data of the different economic factors, and to understand how the stock returns in these countries are affected by the larger developed nations such as United States.

Secondly, as the data used in this study is annual data, a more comprehensive study can be conducted with the use of monthly data. It is possible to uncover different relationships between changes in interest rates to stock returns when monthly data is employed. In this study, only yearly data is employed as there is no publicly available free data on the emerging countries to be investigated. However, serious investors may consider to purchase or to seek out these monthly data for further research.

Then, changes in interest rates are essentially macroeconomic factors. However, the driving forces of the cross sectional stock returns are unknown. For this, investors may be able to employ microeconomic factors to further understand the microeconomic factors that are responsible in affecting the returns from different stocks in different industry.

5.4 Conclusion

Overall, from the low R-square of the regressions, it is obvious that there are no easy profits on the stock market. None of the countries exhibit statistically significant relationships between changes in interest rates and stock returns. Despite it is so economically meaningful and inspiring to learn the logic that interest rates may affect stock returns in the financial market, the study conducted in this dissertation suggest otherwise. Stock market is more complex and unpredictable as most people may expect. For example, in theory, inverse relationships should exist between changes in interest rates and stock returns. However, in most of the countries, particularly in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, the relationships between changes in interest rates and stock returns are positive. This strongly suggests that investors must exercise their own judgment and treat the many different theories critically. To a certain degree, the findings presented in this study had falsified or reject the notion that when interest rates are increased, people may pull out money from the stock market and invest in bond. Similar study on the other predicting variables to stock returns will surely falsify more misconception of people in the marketplace. Such study is essential to further enhance people understanding on the complexities of stock market, and thus form more realistic expectations on the difficulty to beat the market in the long run.

Although seemingly no statistically significant relationships are found, the study is useful in several cases as follow. For example, in case the government had increase the interest rates by 1%, and stock returns plummeted. There are analysts arguing that the stock prices dropped is indeed due to the rise of interest rates. These analysts further commented that when interest rates increase, stock returns will likely to suffered in the future because from historical perspective, rises of interest rates tend to affect stock returns in following ways: investors are likely to find that investing in bond is becoming more attractive, companies may hurt by rising interest rates payment, and the rise of interest rates may hurt market sentiment as corporations are less likely to engage in merger and acquisition activities. The arguments are rational, logic, educated, consistent with theories and worst, convincing. However, with the research findings from this dissertation, investor will likely to understand that such claims from the analysts are false – or is not solidly grounded. The findings that stock returns are positively related to changes in interest rates strongly argued against the convincing explanations and arguments asserted by the analysts. Instead of selling stocks in the financial market, investors may considered to invest further in the stock markets, as from a historical perspectives, stock market tend to rise more often than it will drop (as suggested by the descriptive statistics presented in this study). As such, the findings of this study are crucial, particularly when opinions are widely available in the mass media, from friends or relatives about the financial market. A study on the historical relationships between the different variables to stock returns will likely to reject the misconceptions or false assertions from these people that actually do not understand what they are talking about.

Lastly, it is concluded that stock market is a complex and dynamic invention of human beings. Many different factors may affect the stock prices from time to time. People opinions may not be valid. Instead, people may have false beliefs on the financial market. All of these wrong beliefs will likely to hurt the financial performance of the investors, should the investor blindly follow the false advices or misconception. It is crucial for investors to analyze the financial market, with a critical mindset, before believing in any notion that could sound very compelling to him.

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